A brief review of economic indicators

Posted on June 10th, 2008 by admin, under economic indicators.

Atlanta Fed Index
The index of business activity the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta.
Represents the results of a survey of manufacturers in Atlanta for their attitude towards the current economic situation. The figures below “0″ are an indicator slowdown in the economy. Its value is published after 10 - the first of each month at 16:00 (GMT +2). This index has a limited impact on the market, as published after the release of an indicator of business activity at the national level (NAPM index). Growth in the value of the index is a favourable factor for the growth of the dollar.

Average Earnings Growth
Growth in average earnings.
The indicator is calculated by taking into account earnings growth over the past three months (all payments are taken into account, which had indeed been made, and not “assessed”). This is a good indicator of future inflation, as earnings growth, if it does not offset the increase in productivity, is the cause of price increases. He is one of the defining indicators, according to which the Bank of England determines the level of interest rates. Published monthly. Provides a significant impact on the market.

Average Hourly Earnings
The average hourly wage.
This indicator falls in the U.S. and expressed as an absolute value and as indices in relation to the previous period of review. His viewed as an indicator of potential inflation-related rise in labour costs. Provides a significant impact on the market. In a major raise expectations of interest rates increases its value could lead to an increase in the dollar. Published usually the first Friday of each month at 15:30 (GMT +2) simultaneously with the indicator “Nonfarm payrolls”.

Average Workweek
The average working week.
The indicator shows the average length of the working week for a month. Published usually the first Friday of each month at 15:30 (GMT +2) simultaneously with the indicator “Nonfarm payrolls”. At practically does not affect the market. Used to long-term analysis of employment in the country. He is a “good” indicator of the labour market at different stages of the economic cycle. He believed one of the defining indicators for such indicators as “Industrial production” (Industrial production) and “Personal income” (Personal income), whose values are published at a later date.

Balance of Payments (Current Account)
Balance of payments.
The indicator is the ratio between the amount of payments received from abroad, and the amount of payments going abroad. If coming into the country payments exceed payments to other countries and international organizations, is an active balance of payments (surplus), if on the contrary - that passive (deficit). The positive balance (or reduction in value shortfall) is a favourable factor for the growth of the national currency. Published monthly. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.

Balance of trade
Trade balance.
The difference between exports and imports, expressed in prices. Published monthly. Has little impact on the market.

Beige Book
Economic overview of the U.S. Federal Reserve System - Beige Book.
This compilation of reports FRS, which represents an overview of the dynamics of economic development and serves as the U.S. indicator further Fed action in the field of credit - monetary policy. A twelve Federal Reserve Bank of the United States. The review covers the scope of industrial production, services, agriculture, financial institutions, the labour market, the real estate market. Has limited impact on the market. When appearing on the market rumours of a possible change in interest rates, then pay attention to that part of the review, which deals with the state of wages and prices. Review useful in terms of confirmation of already established trends in the economy. Its value is published 8 times a year, on Wednesdays, two weeks before the next Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) Federal Reserve System in the U.S. 21:00 (GMT +2).

Budget Deficit - Public sector borrowing requirement - PSBR
The fiscal deficit.
It is a budgetary excess of expenditure over budgetary income.
Large fiscal deficit has led to increased public debt and could speak a catalyst accelerating inflation. Called either very costly or low-income budget. Hence the two ways to address the budget deficit - reducing costs (primarily suffer social costs - on health, education, etc.) or raising taxes. In the first case solved by poor countries, in the second - at the expense of taxpayers. And in the first and the second solution to the problem of fiscal deficit affects the interests of the most influential groups, hence the complexity of its decision. On the other hand, does not solve the problem of fiscal deficit, the government pushes up inflation and as a consequence - interest rates. This contradicts the interests of the majority of the population (as buyers of goods and real estate loans) and the productive sector.
Little budget deficit or even complete his absence, said, as a rule, or high taxes or low costs States (mainly from small military spending). In the first case, taxpayers suffer, in the second - the recipients of budgetary funds (social programs and the military-industrial complex). Low budget deficit leads to lower inflation with all its attendant adverse effects. Because of the significant influence of the military-industrial lobby on the policies of virtually all developed nations can be concluded that the low budget deficit disadvantages governments of these countries.
Effective budget deficit is based on moderate inflation, while respecting the interests of all interested groups in the country’s budget.
The indicator does not provide much influence on the market. Published monthly.

Building Permits
Permits for construction.
The indicator shows the number of construction permits for new homes. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in the basic interest rates, as well as the construction should take bank loans. These data, the nature of the real estate market, are prone to seasonal fluctuations. The process of construction is directly linked with the state of incomes. Therefore, the increase of construction characterizes improving their well-being and healthy development of the economy. Has limited impact on the market. The increase his value has a positive impact on the rate of the national currency. Its importance is published by the third week of each month at 15:30 (GMT +2) simultaneously with the indicator “Housing starts”.

Business Inventories
Stocks at wholesale warehouses.
The rate includes all manufactured and stored in warehouses goods. He said a weakening growth in sales of goods, negative state of the economy, leading to a weakening currency. Published at 15:30 (GMT +2) 15 - the first of each month.
The following pattern: an increase in stocks for several months may indicate the existence of stagnant phenomena in the economy. The impact of this indicator to the market is limited. However, steady trend in its dynamics has a profound influence on the market. Growth in value index has a negative impact on the dollar.

Capacity Utilisation
Capacity utilization.
The rate of production facilities busy.
The ratio of total output to common opportunities. Describes the current state of the economy. For this indicator, there is an optimum value 81.5%. Perhaps, a smaller 81.5%, said a weakening economy and currency, and vice versa. Published: 16:15 (GMT +2), 15 - the first of each month (data for the previous month).

CBI Distributive Trades
Review (in the form of numbers) reflects business sentiment businessmen on the trade sphere. The review has no direct connection with real prospects of economic development. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.
Published: 16:15 (GMT +2), 15 - the first of each month (data for the previous month).

CBI Industrial Trends
Economic overview of British Confederation of Industrialists.
Review (in the form of numbers) reflects business sentiment businessmen about the productive sector of the economy. The review has no direct connection with real prospects of economic development. Published monthly. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.

Chain Store Sales
The data on the dynamics of sales at stores networks.
Published: 17:00 (GMT +2), 5 - first working day of the month (data for the preceding two months).

Chicago PMI Index
The index of business activity Managers Association in Chicago.
It represents the results of a survey of purchasing managers in industry from Chicago. The index affects the state of production orders, the prices of manufactured products and product stocks in warehouses. The figures below “45-50″ is an indicator of a slowing economy. It is closely watched because it is published shortly before the index of business activity the National Association of Managers (NAPM). This index has a significant impact on the market, as may give an idea of what will be an indicator of business activity at the national level (NAPM). The growth index values leads to an increase in the dollar. Its value is published on the last business day of each month at 17:00 (GMT +2).

Construction Spending
The cost of construction.
Separate to the cost of housing in the city, outside the city, as well as the costs of population for new construction. In connection with strong fluctuations indicator of its effect on the market slightly - considering only the trend continued during the 3 - x months or more. The increase his value has a positive impact on the rate of the national currency. Published at 17:00 (GMT +2), 1 - first working day of the month. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in the basic interest rates, as well as the construction should take bank loans. These data, the nature of the real estate market, are prone to seasonal fluctuations. The process of construction is directly linked with the state of incomes. Therefore, the increase in the volume of construction characterizes improving their well-being and healthy development of the economy.

Consumer Confidence
The index of consumer confidence.
Expectations (sentiment) consumers. Household Survey, designed to assess individual propensity to spend. It consists of sub-2 - consumers assess current conditions and expectations about the future (60% of the total weight index). Published: 17:00 (GMT +2), last Tuesday of the month (data for the current month). This review is an attempt to measure consumer optimism. The index is calculated since 1967. At first he was equal to “100″. Has limited impact on the market, because it may not reflect the real state of the economy. However, it is traditionally used to forecast trends in employment and the overall state of the economy. Growth in value index is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar.

Consumer Credit
Consumer credit.
Represents the amount of Americans use credit through credit cards, personal borrowing and buying in installments. It is an indicator of consumer demand. The importance of this indicator shows that consumers are not afraid “zalezat into debt” to meet their material needs. However, the figures are frequently revised and significant seasonal variations. For example, the value of consumer credit grows in anticipation of the Christmas and New Year. Has limited impact on the market. Growth in value index is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Its value is published about 7 - the first of each month at 22:00 (GMT +2).

Consumer Price Index - CPI
The consumer price index.
This indicator assesses the changing retail fixed basket of consumer prices, excluding the prices of new goods and services. Includes imports, standing demand services (food, clothing, fuel, transportation, medical care, etc.). And taxes. Analysts quite often used the so-called “core rate”, (Core) CPI, which does not include the prices of food and energy. The growth of this indicator is of falling currency. In Britain it is called retail price index (RPI-Retail price index). Fluctuations from -0.5% to +0.5%. As a rule, refusing to 0.2 from the expected value is enough to cause a visible reaction currency market. Published: 17:30 (GMT +2), 13 - first day of each month (data for the previous month).
CPI is often seen as the main indicator of inflation. In doing so, he has several shortcomings. By virtue of a measure of consumer prices for a basket of basic goods and services, otnormirovannaya to the level of 1993 - 1995 g; index in that period made for 100. Perhaps index of 171.8 means that the price of the basket this month at 71.8% higher than in the base period. Strictly speaking, there are 2 versions index CPU: CPU-U and CPU-W. Investors and traders mainly pay attention to the CPU-U, covering about 80% of the civilian population. However, for calculating the number of social payments and other uses that are not quite logically, CPU-W.
If Pi (0) - the price of i-goods (services) from the consumer basket in a fixed time (base period), a Pi (t) - its price at time t (now), and wi - weight assigned to this product in the consumer basket (the sum of all weights equal to 1), the index may take the form
I = wi Pi (t) / Pi (0)
Accounting Office for Employment (Bureau of Labor Statistics) clarifies monthly price of basic consumer basket. Data are collected in 85 cities across the country and averaged according to their relative importance. To determine the composition of the basket and the relative weights, BLS conducts every 10 years, the study cost structure population. Meanwhile, the CPI does not take into account the tendency of consumers to buy cheaper goods less well-known companies than the price which takes into account. In addition, he believes the stated price and ignores all sorts of discounts. The impact of these factors is estimated at 0.5 - 1.5%. It also does not take into account the rapidly improving over time the quality of goods and services.
The choice of the consumer basket is not an easy task, and is based on special statistical studies, because it should reflect typical for the country of consumption goods, the prices are really objectively would show the direction of economic processes taking place. In the U.S., for example, the statistics cover 19000 retailers and 57000 households as a representative sample of about 80% of the population. In the consumer basket commodities represent 44.1% and 55.9% - services. Given that prices for food and energy are prone to the greatest change (as cyclical, and because of various economic shocks), separately also comes indicator CoreCPI, which are excluded from the basket of food and energy sources (CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY). The main features of conduct CPI in the business cycle:
– The greatest volatility (volatility) has a place for the price of food and energy sources, greater volatility in prices for goods (where the contribution of foods & energy up to 50%) than for services (where the contribution of foods & energy does not exceed 6%);
– Inflation in the services sector of lagging inflation on commodity market by about 6 - 9 months;
– Inflation has its own cycle, retarded in relation to overall economic growth cycle.
The growth index may cause the fall of course.

Consumer Sentiment Index
The index of consumer expectations at the University of Michigan.
When the consumer is beginning to experience anxiety and uncertainty about the future, he changes the structure of its expenditure towards savings. When these consumers is becoming quite a lot, a reduction in consumer spending begins to affect the economy as a whole. There are several measures of consumer optimism. We will review the index, calculated at the University of Michigan, which is within the pre-economic indicators index (Index of Leading Economic Indicatiors). The statistical study by the Department of Trade (Commerce Department), showed that the index best correlated with future economic activity.
Index University of Michigan Sentiment Index is derived through a monthly telephone survey of about 500 consumers. Each of them is set to 5 questions concerning their financial situation and views on the current status (2 issue) and future (3 issue) economy.
Establish the percentage of respondents who reported improved economic conditions, it is subtracted from the percentage of those who said that was worse, added to the number obtained 100.
Of the first 2 replies to the question formed an overview of the current economic situation of the last 3 - x - index of consumer expectations. Thus, expectations are responsible for about 60% of the index.
A report published twice a month: in the second week (usually on Friday) about 15 the number reporting month (preliminary), and in two weeks (final).
Published at 17:00 (GMT +2). The growth index values leads to an increase in the dollar.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
The index rates the shares of industrial companies Dow Jones.
The most famous American stock index. Includes 30 shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The so-called “Doe” is a barometer of Conduct for United States shares the largest companies. The index is based on calculating growth rate (reduction) prices mean all the shares of many corporations.

Durable Goods Orders - DGO
Orders for durable goods.
That consumer confidence index, reflecting their expectations and ability to spend money. His positive growth characterizes the state of the economy, helps strengthen the currency. The fall leads to the opposite results. But raising may occur due to increase in the defence industry orders and so on, so more attention should be paid to the growth of orders in all industries. Published: 15:30 (GMT +2), 26 - e of each month (data for the previous month).
The index is quite convenient DGO faster indicator: because many producers are planning to manufacture, on the basis of available jobs, drop DGO precedes a fall of production and vice versa. Usually DGO index starts to fall for 6 - 8 months to turn the economic cycle of recession and recovery to a few months before ending the recession.
Accounting Office (US Census Bureau) Department of Commerce (Department of Commerce) calculates the index based on a monthly survey of about 5000 producers. Take into account orders, mandatory for execution - formal contract or other document.

Employment Cost Index
The index of labour costs.
It includes wages and unemployment benefits. It can serve as indicator of the availability of inflation in the country’s economy. The index of labour costs is one of those indicators, which is closely following Federal Reserve in its monetary policy (and this says a lot). In a major raise expectations of interest rates increases its value leads to an increase in the dollar. Used for medium and long-term projections. Its value is published every quarter, after 20 - the first of the month in the publication of 15:30 (GMT +2).

Existing and New Home Sales
The data on the dynamics of real estate sales.
The indicator reflects supply and demand in the real estate sector, lags behind the rates on mortgages, is quite fragile, revised from month to month. Analysts are paying more attention to the records of sales of existing homes. Published: 17:00 (GMT +2), 25 - e of each month (data for the previous month). It may provide an optimism about the consumer (customer confidence) and on their ability to buy expensive things. These data, the nature of the real estate market, are prone to seasonal fluctuations. The process of construction is directly linked with the state of incomes. Therefore, the increase in the volume of construction characterizes improving their well-being and healthy development of the economy. Has limited impact on the market. The increase his value has a positive impact on the rate of the national currency. The number of new houses sold tends to rise when the rising rate on loans secured with real estate, which is linked with the basic interest rates in the country. These data, the nature of the real estate market, are prone to seasonal fluctuations. Therefore, when analysing the indicator “New home sales” use “rolling average” (moving average).

Export Prices
Prices for export.
The index reflects changes in prices on exports for the month. It is an indicator of inflation. Has limited impact on the market. In a major raise expectations interest rates increase the value index leads to an increase in the dollar. Its value is published every month about 10 - the first of at 15:30 (GMT +2) simultaneously with an “Import prices”.

Factory Orders - Manufacturing Orders
Manufacturing orders.
It consists of two indicators: orders for durable goods and nedlitelnogo use. The increase of the indicator suggests a possible increase in production, currency, and vice versa. Published: 17:00 (GMT +2), the first working day of the month (data for the previous 2 months).

Federal Budget
The state budget.
Characterizes the relationship between income state and its costs. When the income exceeds its expenses over the state formed a surplus (surplus). When excessive level of spending States over its income deficit is formed (deficit). This figure has little impact on the market. Usually it is used for long-term analysis of the economy. The budget deficit seen in context with other indicators: industrial price index (PPI), consumer price index (CPI), monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3), etc. Its value is published about 20 - the first of each month at 21:00 ( GMT +2).

Gross Domestic Product - GD R
Gross domestic product (GDP).
One of the fundamental macroeconomic indicators, representing the imputed value in the market prices of products and services produced domestically, but it excludes income citizens and corporations working abroad. There are nominal and real GDP (at current prices, adjusted for inflation (deflation) in prices of base year). Published: 15:30 (GMT +2), 3 or 4 week month (data for the previous quarter, with subsequent adjustments) quarterly with monthly clarification on the last business Thursday or Friday.
In calculating GDP accounted for 4 main components: the consumption (C, dated Consumption), investments (I, of Investments), government expenditures (G, from the Goverment purchases) and net exports, ie full exports minus total imports (XM, from eXport - iMport):
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)
The structure of consumption (C) usually differ Division 3: consumption of durable goods (more than 3 years) use (durable goods - cars, furniture and tp), short-term (less than 3 years) use (nondurable goods - clothing, food, medicines … ) And services (services).
As a percentage of durable goods constitute about 15%, nondurables - about 31% and services - about 54% of total consumption (we are talking about America). In general, C determine at the present time, about 56% of GDP and is thus an essential component of it.
Investment (I) are responsible for about 14% of GDP, government spending (G) - social benefits, arming, the interest on government bonds, etc. — For 17%, and, finally, exports (X - M) - about 13%. Note that for the last component of the U.S. GDP would be logical to name a net imports as the country imports far more goods and services than imports (i.e. the X - M negative).
With GDP growth rate typically increases. The impact on GDP data on currency market is always significant. Sometimes it was not clear if the published figures were not unexpected and had already taken into account (discounted) market. But sometimes it can take the most severe form when the went data differs substantially from projections for the market and are a kind of shock. A recent example of this kind - the publication of unexpectedly high value of GDP of Japan for the first quarter of 1999.
GDP is considered both in nominal (in current prices) and at prices fixed period (real GDP, Real GDP). The ratio of nominal GDP is to real GDP deflator (Implicit Price Deflator), he also published as an indicator of inflation. In addition to GDP, is also close to him the meaning of gross national product (Gross National Product, GNP), which takes into consideration the total production of goods and services to the residents of this country, regardless of where they are located within national borders or abroad.

GDP Advance
Gross domestic product (GDP) - a preliminary value.
This indicator is the first stage of the three levels of data on GDP, which is published every quarter. They went as follows: advance - provisional (revised) - final. Its value is published every quarter, after 20 - the first of the month in the publication of 15:30 (GMT +2).

GDP Deflator
The GDP deflator.
Gross domestic product at constant prices - an indicator of an alternative index of consumer prices (SR I) to detect inflationary pressures in the economy. Its advantage, compared with SR I, that he will not be calculated on the basis of a fixed basket of goods and services and thus allows to control any changes due to changes in consumer preferences, as well as the emergence of new goods and services. His growth entails higher interest rates. This attitude of the current value of GDP to its basic value. Reflects the value of inflationary component in the value of GDP. Published in conjunction with the GDP. Provides a significant impact on the market. In a major raise expectations of interest rates increases its value leads to an increase in the dollar.

GDP Final
Gross domestic product (GDP) - the final value.
This update of the revised values “GDP (provisional). Most of the time difference between the minimum. Therefore, these figures do not surprise the market. Its value is published next month after the publication of “GDP provisional” after 20 - the first of at 15:30 (GMT +2).

GDP Provisional (Revised)
Gross domestic product (GDP) - Revised value.
This update (revision) “prior values” GDP (advance). Published next month after the publication of “GDP advance” after 20 - the first of at 15:30 (GMT +2).

Global trade, Non-EU trade balance
Trade balance.
The difference between exports and imports, expressed in prices. The index is gradually losing its influence on the market, as well as becoming more important flows of capital, rather than goods. At the same time, growth in imports suggests raising the level of consumption in the country, and export growth - about raising production. In Britain, taken separately allocate the value of trade balance with countries outside the European Union. Published monthly.

Help-wanted index
The index of the number of workers required.
Characterizes the volume of ads published in newspapers on the hiring of workers and employees. In 1987 was laid for the base, while its value was equal to “100″. In his analysis of the “rolling average” (moving average). If moving average index shows the change in trend for several months, it could serve as a sign of the changing situation on the labour market. Also, the index may give the presentation on the possible changing of the economic situation in different regions of the country. Virtually no effect on the market. His influence is limited so that the calculation was adopted only a limited number of major regional newspapers. Its value is published, usually on the last Thursday of each month at 17:00 (GMT +2).

Housing Starts and Permits
Beginning housing and building permits.
Home Housing - The number of construction sites appearing every month. Permission for the construction - the number of warrants at the beginning of excavation. For the U.S. construction - particularly meaningful element of the economy. Increased activity in construction is possible only in good state of the economy, it contributes to strengthening the national currency. Published: 15:30 (GMT +2) 16 - e number of months (data for the previous month).
All-turn in the economy since World War II preceded changes in the behaviour of the index. In a typical (for dollars) budget family occupy 17% of the cost of transportation (purchase of vehicles and fuel) and 40% (!) - Housing (for payment of installments). Both, and other costs are sensitive to the level of interest rates. Since Dr. c moves are related to housing and the cost of many durables use, such as furniture, household domestic appliances, etc. Thus, the prolonged decline in housing is a strong sign of slabeyuschey (possibly recessionary) economy, and vice versa, its growth indicates growth economic activity.
Data on the construction of private houses are collected Accounting Office (Bureau of the Census) Department of Commerce (Department of Commerce).
Figures on the number of permits issued are collected from 19000 organizations entitled to extradite them, and are seen as a pointer to the number of construction, which will begin in the near future. This number is a good indicator of faster economic activity and is included in the index advanced economic indicators (Index of Leading Economic Indicators).

Humphrey-Hawkins testimony
Statement by the Chief U.S. Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve) (now the Alan Greenspan) before the two banking committees of the U.S. Congress.
The statement runs twice a year: winter and summer. The two chambers of Congress (The Senate and House) alternately listen to the first report. The report sheds light on new plans and objectives of the Federal Reserve System in the conduct of monetary policy. It is closely watched by all market participants and trying to find a hint at possible action in future Fed major change in interest rates. Speech has a significant impact on the market. This is one of the most important and significant events for the financial market.

IFO survey
Review of the German research institute IFO.
The review assesses the level of business activity in the country. Perhaps an indicator can vary from 80 to 120, passed for 100 level of business activity in 1991. Published monthly. Provides a significant impact on the market.

Import Prices
Prices of imports.
The index reflects changes in prices on imports for the month. It is an indicator of inflation. Since when calculating the consumer price index (CPI) takes into account the prices of imported goods and services, this describes the importance of the contribution of the prices of imports into the overall picture of retail price changes to the “basket” of goods and services. Has limited impact on the market. In a major raise expectations interest rates increase the value index leads to an increase in the dollar. Its value is published every month about 10 - the first of at 15:30 (GMT +2) simultaneously with an “Export prices”.

Industrial Output
The volume of industrial output.
It includes manufacturing output (manufacturing output), and also takes into account the volume of output in sectors such as mining and processing of minerals, utilities. He is the indicator of economic growth. The indicator is not a determinant for the direction of the economy, as more than 60% of gross domestic product is now providing services. Published monthly. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.

Industrial Production
The indicator of industrial production.
Shows total national output of factories, mines, total utilities, etc. The increase contributed to the growth rate of currency. Published: 16:15 (GMT +2), 15 - e number of months (data for the previous month).
Industrial production is about 40% of the U.S. economy. There is a fairly high correlation between the level of production and the value of GDP. One advantage of this indicator is that it is measured by output, not its money.
The index expresses the Federal Reserve System (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) percentage of 1992. In the media usually publishes its modification in relation to last month.
In the U.S. statistics of production conducted by businesses, grouped by 255 branches. As of 1992, production of industrial products stood at 84.6% of the entire manufacturing sector, mining 7.3%, electricity 8.1%. FED also expects its rate - diffusion index of production (production diffusion index), which equals the percentage of industries (from 255), where over the past month increased production.
The rate of IP is understandable and reliable benchmark for tracking the business cycle. According to the statistics of the U.S. (1948 -1992 years), industrial production in the stage of a recession falls in the average rate of 0.8% per month, a recovery in the recovery of 0.9% per month and at the stage of growth (expansion) of about 0.4%.
The rate of capacity utilization (Capacity Utilization, CAPU) is the ratio of total industrial output value of the total productivity (output potential) industries. The importance to the currency market this indicator is due to its close links with the dynamics of the business cycle, which it difficult moments waiting for changes in policies of central banks become market for further guidance, suggests possible future solutions TSB.
It is known that the optimal functioning of the economy mode corresponds to the level CAPU about 81.5%; significant deviations from the optimal level means the violation of balance and they can identify upcoming times of recession or recovery. For example, high value CAPU> 85% may mean the economy overheating, after which inflation will inevitably occur, so such values CAPU can predict in advance the changes in central bank monetary policy (raising official interest rates).
The indicator is published monthly CAPU simultaneously with data on industrial production. Normally, it takes great significance in the recession (an average of 80.3%) than in recovery (an average of 78.8%), as the early stages of recovery inherent low burden of production facilities.

At the stage of expansion, on average CAPU = 84% and reaches a maximum of 85.4% (observed and peak at 89.2%).

Industrial Production Index
Index of industrial production.
Shows level changes in industrial production in the country. The initial value index falls at the end of each month. Two weeks went revised value index. The growth of this index leads to an increase in the national currency. Provides a significant impact on the market.

Inflation
Inflation.
Indices of inflation: the consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (R R I). With the growth of inflation rate usually declines;
The high inflation - it is bad, because high interest rates, the inevitable with such inflation, reduce the efficiency of production and determine the redistribution of capital from production to intermediaries (trade and financial institutions). Industrial groups will speak out against high inflation.
Low inflation, or complete lack thereof - is bad, because the interests of brokers are beginning to suffer. In trade begins to stagnate, because nobody wants to buy goods that have little or no rise in price, and even falling. Financial intermediaries are suffering because of low interest rates.
The optimum value of inflation - is good, because stable high efficiency manufacturing sector remains profitable opportunities for business and intermediaries, especially among financial institutions.
Few economic indicators may be the degree of importance for currency markets to match inflation rates. Traders closely monitor the behaviour of prices, as a means of combating inflation, which central banks resort, is to raise interest rates, and it acts as a reinforcing factor in the exchange rate. In addition, the rate of inflation changes the real values of interest rates. Markets government bonds for that reason are very sensitive to data on inflation, and if their very substantial amount, the redistribution of cash flows caused by the movements of these markets, inevitably affects exchange rates.
As with other indicators, the reaction of currency markets for data on inflation depends on the stage of the business cycle, which is this economy. If at the stage of growth there are signs of inflation, the central bank may take proactive measures, some raising official interest rates. In this case, the main factor in terms of the currency market would be in favor of this increased interest rates and currency exchange rate differential rises. Quite a different reaction will be when inflation begins to accelerate at the upper stage of the business cycle, when the real economy is overheating, threatens severe recession. In this case, in response to rising inflation as the central bank will raise rates for the purpose of cooling activity, but the market reaction will be directly opposite. Realizing that ahead of the recession in the economy associated with the inevitable fall in equity prices, investment, problems with foreign trade, traders will sell the currency, as well as other related assets, so the consequence will drop its course.

Interest Rates
Official interest rates.
None of the indicators of economy and finance is not to track trends in currency markets such values as interest rates. Interest differential (Interest Rate Differential), that is, the difference in interest rates, operating in two currencies - is the main factor directly determines the relative attractiveness of a pair of currencies, and thus the possible demand for each of them. The higher interest rate for this currency compared to other currencies (the large percentage differential), the greater will be among foreign investors willing to buy this currency, to place funds in a deposit under high interest rates. And because interest rates are always closely linked, high rates of the banking market and mean high rates on government bonds, as well as high returns on bonds more risky stock companies. In short, high interest rates make this an attractive currency as a tool for investment; and hence demand on the international currency market has risen, and the rate of the currency rising.
In general, the impact of interest rates on exchange rates quite clearly: the higher the interest rates on the currency, the higher its exchange rate. But there are many circumstances that make the accounting of interest rates and non-obvious does not even easy. First, we must take into account not on their own interest rates and real interest rates, taking into account inflation, because there is a strong link between currency markets and valuable public securities markets (with fixed-income instruments), very sensitive to inflation. If inflation in the country begins to grow rapidly this devalue government bonds, as well as income on them is paid a fixed, pre-set, and inflation, this revenue can simply eat. When the first signs of high inflation, government bond markets are beginning nervous, and if foreign investors will discount bonds, there is a surplus of the currency on FOREX, because of what its rate will fall.
Secondly, market expectations are important events and preparing for them, and not only responds to the already fait accompli. If there is a view that interest rates on the currency will be raised, the dealers will raise its rates in anticipation of their future promotion. And the market may be a long time for this optimistic outlook on the currency, which quickly established its ascending trend. When, finally, raising the rates will actually be the currency already in overbought condition, and the pressure factor because it has already eliminated Above held after raising rates, the first reaction to their actual increase rate may be falling, that is directly opposite reaction. This is all the more likely for the reason that such a rollback down a good opportunity to open new long positions on the currency (that is, buy it).

International Trade (Trade balance)
Trade balance.
It is a ratio between the amount of prices of goods exported outside the State, and the amount of prices of goods imported into the territory of that State. Ie the difference between exports and imports. If the amount of exported goods price exceeds the amount of imported prices, it is an active trade balance (surplus), if the import exceeds export - passive (deficit). The positive balance (or reduction in value shortfall) is a favourable factor for the growth of the national currency. Provides a significant impact on the market. Its importance is published by the third week of each month (usually on Thursday) at 15:30 (GMT +2).

Jobless Claims (Initial Claims)
Number of applications for unemployment benefits.
Published at 15:30 (GMT +2) every Thursday (figures for the week ending the previous Saturday). These figures do not always reflect the real picture of events. They are sometimes distorted by short-term factors, such as federal or local holidays. This may provide an indication of how the next time will figure “Nonfarm payrolls”. For example, if during the month value indicator “Jobless claims” consistently declining, the great likelihood that the value “Nonfarm payrolls” will be great. Has limited impact on the market. Reducing the number of applications for unemployment benefits is a favourable factor for the growth of the dollar.

Leading and Coincident Indices of Business Conditions
Index of leading and coincident indicators.
The index of leading indicators is the average value of 13 - not the main various indicators. Used to determine the future of the economy. The index of coincident indicators is composed of 11 indicators and is designed to assess the current state of the economy (50% level indicator is “zero”). Issued monthly. Poor affect the market.

Leading Economic Indicators - LEI
The index of economic indicators advanced.
LEI index is formed from 10 time series and developed specifically to predict changes in global economic activity. Historically verified that the maxima and minima LEI index is preceded by turning the economy. Typically, 3 consecutive LEI index changes in the same direction are seen as fairly strong signal. For example, the monthly value of -0.5%, -1% and -0.7% indicate the possible start of a recession. Note that this is necessary but not sufficient condition: for example, in the interval from 1952 to 1998 LEI “predicted” 10 recession, of which actually happened 7. Notice also that the LEI index works best in periods of economic activity maxima than minima. Facing index occurs on average for the 10 months before the economy from recession to recovery and for 1-2 before a turn in the opposite direction.
LEI index components were chosen for reasons of their economic importance, statistical adequacy and the operational measure:

* Average length of the working week in the manufacturing sector.
* Average number of applications a week for the payment of state unemployment insurance.
* New manufacturing orders for consumer goods and materials (in 1982).
* The effectiveness of supply (the share of firms that supply deadlines for which are increasing).
* Contracts and orders for capital goods and equipment (in 1982).
* Obtained permits for housing construction.
* Outstanding production orders for durable goods (changing for the month, prices in 1982).
* Changing the prices of raw materials.
* Stock Index S & P500 (average).
* Money M2 in U.S. unit in 1982

The index of consumer expectations (University of Michigan’s Consumer Expectations Index). This index is based on the idea that the main motivating force in the economy is the expectation of future profits. In anticipation of growth of profits companies are expanding production of goods and services, investment in new plants and equipment, respectively, this activity is reduced when the anticipated decline in revenue. Therefore, the index is designed so that it covers all major areas and indicators of business activity: employment, production and income, consumption, trade, investment, stock prices, money and credit.
American LEI index is published monthly, near the end of the month.

Machinery Orders
Orders for production engineering.
The indicator reflects the level of investment firms and business activity. A based on estimates more than 300 industrial manufacturers. Published monthly. Provides a significant impact on the market.

Manufacturing Orders (GER)
Indicator shows changes in the number of orders for the products of German enterprises.
Reflects the prospects for economic development. Published monthly. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.

Manufacturing Output
The volume of products issued by manufacturing industry, in terms of prices.
He is the indicator of economic growth. Perhaps an indicator for the market is small, because the contribution of manufacturing in gross domestic product in recent times is less than 20%. Published monthly.

Manufacturing Production
Shows change in volume of products issued by the manufacturing industry. Published monthly. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The index of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
The index represents the results of the poll for consumer confidence in the current economic situation. The survey is conducted at the University of Michigan U.S. officials. A report published twice a month: in the second week (usually on Friday) about 15 the number reporting month (preliminary), and in two weeks (final). Published at 17:00 (GMT +2). This indicator - nothing, as a reflection of the desire of consumers to spend their money. Has limited impact on the market. The growth index values leads to an increase in the dollar.

Money supply
Money supply.
Proposal laundering in the country, expressed in monetary aggregates M0 = cash, M1 = M0 + cheque deposits, M1 + M2 = term deposits, deposit less than U.S. $ 100,000 USA. MOH = M2 + term deposits, deposit more than U.S. $ 100,000 U.S. M4 = total monetary aggregates. Published: 11:30 (GMT +2) every Thursday (figures for the week ending two Mondays ago).
The growth of money supply, usually accompanied by the collapse of the national currency. But sometimes data on money supply growth led to expectations of raising the discount rate and, ultimately, to higher rate;
Number of money in circulation (Money Supply), there is one of the major factors shaping the exchange rate. Excess of one currency will create increased its proposal on the international currency market and will decrease its rate in relation to other currencies. Accordingly, the deficit currency, if the demand for it will lead to growth rate.
The indicators are measured amount of money in circulation, the so-called monetary aggregates (Monetary Aggregates), which take into account the amount of money different species, describing and composition of money (the structure of money supply). Sami monetary aggregates are defined somewhat differently in different countries, but their common sense while quite similar. We, as usual, consider this version adopted in the American banking system, where data are formed on the four monetary aggregates:
– M0 - banknotes and coins in circulation;
– Ml - cash in circulation outside the banks, travellers cheques, demand deposits, other cheque deposits;
– M2 = Ml + nechekovye savings deposits, time deposits in banks, one-day repo transaction, one-day resident U.S. dollar deposits, the funds in the accounts of mutual funds;
– M3 = M2 + short-term government bonds, repo transactions, evrodollarovye U.S. resident deposits in foreign branches of American banks.
Moneyline aggregate M4 includes the amount of cash currency in circulation, the total amount of loans issued by banks, as well as the amount of government borrowing. M4 is considered a good indicator for inflation.
In the United States used another, broader monetary aggregates, but it is believed that the main indicator, strongly correlated with the currency markets, is M2, so further details we dropped.
The impact on monetary aggregates data on currency cycles evaluated primarily through their relationship with the stages of economic cycles. The behaviour of various monetary aggregates in the economic cycle is quite similar: they all show the maximum growth rate prior to the recession and a minimum growth at the end of the recession. For this reason, the unit M2, for example, included in the composite index of indicators advanced. All units are experiencing the greatest growth at the stage of recovery; M2 has an average growth rate in a stage of decline (recession) and in the process of growth.

Money Supply M3
Moneyline aggregate M3 (money supply rate).
Includes the amount of cash currency in circulation, funds for cheque deposits, deposits with maturities of less than 4 - x years. It is believed Bundesbank and the European Central Bank one of the most important indicators of inflation. Usually sets the maximum acceptable value indicator (defined acceptable level of inflation), and in case of exceeding this value indicator, usually higher interest rates. Published monthly. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.

Money Supply M4 aggregate M4 money (the money supply figure).
More often used indicator of changes in money supply. Includes the amount of cash currency in circulation, the total amount of loans issued by banks, as well as the amount of government borrowing. M4 is considered a good indicator for inflation. Published monthly. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.

NAPM index (National Association of Purchasing Managers’ index)
The index of business activity the National Association of Managers.
It represents the results of a survey of purchasing managers in industry. This index is used to evaluate changes in new manufacturing orders, industrial output, employment, as well as stock and speed of suppliers. The figures below “45-50″ is an indicator of a slowing economy. Often on the value of the index influence psychological factors, rather than the actual state of affairs. In calculating the index does not include California. Since industrial output is not automatically a source of consumer demand, the indicator for this match with caution. Its importance is published in the first business day of each month at 17:00 (GMT +2). Has limited impact on the market. The growth index values leads to an increase in the dollar.

NAPM Services Index (National Association of Purchasing Managers’ services index)

It represents the results of a survey of managers in the services sector with a view to assessing changes in the industry.

The figures below “45-50″ is an indicator of a slowing economy. Often on the value of the index influence psychological factors, rather than the actual state of affairs. The process of consumption of services tends to change with a relatively constant speed, so dramatic changes in the value of this index have an impact precisely psychological factors. Therefore, when analysing the index to pay special attention to this. Its importance is published in the first days of each month at 17:00 (GMT +2) one day after the publication of the National Association of Managers index in industry (NAPM index). Has limited impact on the market. Growth in the value of the index is a favourable factor for the growth of the dollar.

NASDAQ Index
The index off traffic.
The National Association of Stock Dealers calculates a number of indices of both off traffic as a whole and individual corporations paper industries. The main index was the NASDAQ, which includes as components of shares around 3500 corporations (other than listed on stock exchanges). The index is an indicator, measured at market value of its components. For the first time he has been calculated in February 1971.

Net Consumer Credit
The amount of loans to individuals for the past month.
The importance of the indicator may talk about “overheating” economy, when consumers take more credit than is necessary for the normal standard of living. Published monthly. Has limited impact on the market.

New Home Sales
The figure shows the number of items sold or exhibited for sale homes, calculated per family, per year.
This number tends to increase when the growing rate on loans secured with real estate, which is linked with the basic interest rates in the country. These data, the nature of the real estate market, are prone to seasonal fluctuations. Therefore, when analysing the indicator “New home sales” use “rolling average” (moving average). Has limited impact on the market. The increase his value has a positive impact on the rate of the national currency. Its importance is published in the first days of each month at 17:00 (GMT +2).

Nonfarm Payrolls
The number of new jobs created in non-agricultural sectors of the economy for the month.
Payroll - a payment statement, which is issued to employees salary. This is a very strong indicator that shows the change in the level of employment in the country. The growth of this index characterizes the increase in employment and leads to an increase in the dollar. It is called “indicator, which moves markets.” There is empirical rule that increases its value at 200 000 per month is equivalent to an increase in GDP at 3.0%. Published usually the first Friday of each month at 15:30 (GMT +2).

Payment Deficit
The deficit balance of payments.
His influence on the same course as the trade deficit.
The functioning of the foreign exchange market and the dynamics of exchange rates are closely linked with international cooperation in trade, cultural exchanges, inter-state interactions with international investment. In financial terms, reflected the place that occupies the country in the global structure of the world, expresses its balance of payments, representing a total of international financial transactions resident of this country. Balance of Payments (Balance of Payments) thus captures the ratio of all major types of international interactions: international trade, capital flows, international services (tourism and others), inter-state calculations.
In the long term competitiveness of the country is determined by its national resources, industrial base, professional qualifications workforce, the structure of prices. Ultimately, non-obvious nature of the relationship of these factors, further aggravate the current political realities makes us very balance of payments with the dynamics of short-term exchange rates are not so obvious that its analysis trader gave specific reasons for the decision-making. Therefore foreign exchange market usually focuses on the main part of the balance of payments - trade balance.

Payroll Employment - PE
Employment in terms of the employer.
Each month a special department of the Department of Employment (Department of Labor), called “Accounting Office for Employment (Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS)” gathers information and creates so-called Establishment survey - the result of a survey on average work week, salary, overtime and etc. and Household survey - the result of the survey population.
Thus, a so-called payroll employment statistics - an index that takes into account the average length of the work week and overtime, and salary. In the first approximation can be considered that it reflects the amount of funds paid by firms in the form of wages. Announced in the form of changes in relation to the previous month.
The report on employment is perhaps the most powerful of all the “engine of the market.” There are two main reasons. First, data on employment is very difficult to forecast, so often declared values differed from the expected and cause immediate correction. Secondly, these data are very well reflect the actual state of the economy. Despite the fact that they often make investors refer to him as an immediate leadership to act.
Are the figures announced by “good” or “bad” depends primarily from changes in payrolls. Also taken into account the duration of the work week and changes in wage-hour working time.

Personal Income
Data on personal income citizens.
The combination of income from all sources, including wages, income from rents, government subsidies, dividend income, etc. Secondary indicator of future consumer demand. We consider together with other index Personal Spending. The growth rate increased currency. Published: 15:30 (GMT +2), the first working day of the month (data for the previous 2 months).

Personal Spending - Personal Consumption
The data concerning the evolution of expenditure citizens.
The index reflects the change in spending to meet personal needs. Has limited impact on the market. Its value is published after 20 - the first of each month at 15:30 (GMT +2) simultaneously with a “Personal income”. The index includes three components: the cost of the acquisition of durable goods, services and short-term use. On the consumption of durables and short-term use gives an indicator of “Retail sales” (Retail sales). The process of consumption of services, in turn, varies with a relatively constant speed, so the value of this indicator is often predictable. Thus, the only significant deviation from this target projected values may influence the rate of the national currency. The increase his value is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar.

Philadelphia Fed Index
The index of business activity the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia.
It represents the results of a survey of manufacturers in Philadelphia for their attitude towards the current economic situation. The figures below “0″ are an indicator slowdown in the economy. Its value is published on the third Thursday of each month at 17:00 (GMT +2). Has limited impact on the market. It is closely watched because the index is published before the symbol “NAPM”, and may give an idea of what will be an indicator of business activity at the national level. Growth in the value of the index leads to an increase in the dollar.

Producer Price Index - PPI
The index of industrial prices.
Assessments average change in prices set by manufacturers in all stages of manufacture; does not include imported goods, services and taxes. Not tracked separately index, and its change over time. The index is considered indicator of future inflation. Particular attention should be drawn to the kernel index (core) - excluding food and energy.
Published: 15:30 (GMT +2), 11 - e of each month (data for the previous month).
Contribution to the PPI core product groups as follows:
consumer goods, mainly cars - 40%
food - 23%
energy products, mainly gasoline and fuel etc. - 14%.
The remaining 23% spent on various equipment, machinery and vehicles (which, thus, are twice as consumer goods and as a means of production). The report, in addition to finished goods index, indicating a further price index for raw materials and unfinished products (such as chips or parts arrangements).
Markets mostly react to the price index of finished goods, most of whom volatility food and energy.
Typical properties of PPI in the economic cycle:
– Volatilen more than CPI (food & energy therein constitute about 36%, and in the CPI by about 23%);
– Has its own cycle, retarded on the overall economic cycle, a similar cycle CPI;
– Peak value of PPI (expressed as a percentage of annual) is usually delayed for 3 - 6 months of total economic activity peaks and minima his late minima of economic activity for 9 months;
– Most often, extremes PPI and CPI are achieved in one quarter and almost always removed no further than the quarter.

Producer Input Prices (PPI Input)
Industrial prices “at the entrance.”
Defined as the change in the level of prices for components and semi-industrial (rising prices “at the entrance” may not affect the inflation index, as well as possibly reducing costs in the manufacturing process). A strong indicator of inflation. Of the total value indicator usually allocate part, does not take into account prices for products, alcohol, tobacco and fuel (prices of these products is considered to be very volatile value). Published monthly. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.

Producer Output Prices (PPI Output)
Industrial prices “at the outlet.”
Defined as the change in the level of sale prices on products in the industry. A strong indicator of inflation. Reflects inflationary pressures on the economy on the part of producers (rising prices “at the outlet may not affect the inflation index, as well as possible cost reduction in trade). Of the total value indicator usually allocate part, does not take into account prices for products, alcohol, tobacco and fuel (prices of these products is considered to be very volatile value). Published monthly. Provides a significant impact on the market.

Productivity and Costs
Data on trends in productivity and cost index.
Published: 15:30 (GMT +2), 7 - e in the second quarter of the number of months (data for the previous quarter).
The drop in productivity may cause the fall of course.
The index shows the change in volume of output per worker. Labour productivity is a very important indicator for the analysis of the economy. Provides a significant impact on the market. However, it is necessary to follow, as it occasionally may be misleading. For example, reducing the number employed in manufacturing during the stagnation in the economy led to increased productivity. This may also occur due to strikes. Growth in value index is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar.
Its value is published every quarter, and 10 of the next reporting period for the month.

Purchasing Managers Index
The index of business activity.
Reflects the level of business activity the industrial sector of Germany, Italy, Britain, etc.
Extremely popular in recent years in economic statistics indicators, based on the methodology of building a so-called diffusion indexes. Such indexes, by its nature is an indication of business optimism participants business, regularly published (under the names PMI) in the U.S., England and Germany, where they are created by the associations of businessmen, as they apply to evaluating the direction of public opinion, and to measure the dynamics of objective indicators. In Japan, as a similar index TANKAN adopted by the Central Bank of Japan itself as a tool to analyze the dynamics of economic processes for decision making in the field of monetary policy.
Diffusion indexes, unlike many other indicators of socio-economic statistics, are purely subjective indicators. They do not measure the volume of output, the number of jobs, income, etc., but is merely a reflection of how the parties perceive the process of economic change - for the better they (in their view) or whether they lead to a deterioration. Despite this subjectivity to be exact - thanks to her - these indexes have extremely strong predicts properties they are faster indicators strongly correlated with the basic parameters of economic cycles.
The diffusion index based on a survey of a large number of participants, each of which responds to the question of “whether the conditions have improved in terms of your business: new orders, prices, labour market, the timetable for the implementation of orders, new export orders, etc.”, while He chooses one of three answers: “yes”, “no”, “unchanged.” A diffusion index is calculated for a specific issue as the sum
DI = (% responded “yes”) + 0.5 * (% responded “no change”);
calculate such diffusion indexes for each issue, then averaged them, receiving the average composite indexes type or PMI TANKAN. They very effectively monitor the dynamics of the economic cycle, a faster rate: the beginning of the fall of the index predicts growth after a period of transition business-cycle stage of growth (expansion) in the downturn (recession), a turn after the fall Above predicts the beginning of reconstruction (recovery). The close correlation with the diffusion index of economic momentum, assessed on the multi-Statistics show that allows you to use them even to predict future values of GDP (at least in the next quarter).
Such indexes published today almost all the Big Seven countries, for example, they are built in England since 1991. The German PMI began to fall since 1998, it includes a review of 350 companies in the following five issues: Issue (output), new orders (new orders), employment (employment), delivery time of orders (supplier’s delivery times), the purchase of stocks (stocks of goods purchases). Since 1999, and the combined PMI goes on Euro-region, covering 11 states with the single currency euro (EU PMI). The most powerful business coverage statistics (on 34 000 participants) carried out the American PMI index of the National Association of NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Managers), which since 1931; only staff, providing statistics, amounted to 300 persons.
Details structure and properties of business optimism index, we will consider the example of American index Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), NAPM. Review of the American Association NAPN underlying its index PMI, includes issues that the party is invited to answer questionnaires - whether the conditions have changed its business over the past month for the better (the answer “higher”), for the worse ( “lower”), or remained unchanged ( “unchanged”) with respect to the following factors:
– Employment (employment),
– Prices (commodity prices),
– The time of delivery (vendor deliveries),
– Production (production),
– Stocks (inventories),
– New customer orders (new orders from customers),
– New export and import orders (new export and import orders),
– Backlog of orders of default (order backlogs, the item introduced in 1993 at the suggestion of the current chairman of Federal Reserve System A. Greenspan).
For each item questionnaire determined diffusion index (percentage of respondents “higher plus half per cent of respondents unchanged), and then of them built weighted sum, which represents the average index PMI; in 1994, the formula for PMI as follows:
PMI = 0.30 x DI (new orders) + 0.25 x DI (production) +
0.20 x DI (employment) + + 0.15 x DI (deliveries) + 0.10 x DI (inventories)
The main feature PMI - rapid indicator of the business cycle. Highlights for the interpretation of several basic levels of indicator:
– Cyclical maximum and minimum cyclical;
– 50% - level;
– 44% - level.
If after a period of growth PMI unfolding down, it predicts the business cycle turns down. On the contrary, if after the fall of PMI, reaching a minimum, unfolding the top, it is a sign of future recovery. At 40 - Statistics of the U.S. summer, PMI predicts maximum growth cycles in an average of 7 months and a minimum growth cycles - for 3 months.
The drop below the 50 PMI predicts recession in an average of two months, a drop below 44 always predicts an absolute decline in economic activity. At least, PMI achieved in stages of decline, average 35, and after the turn of the minimum he averaged over 4 months, the level reached 44, which is always equal to the minimum economic cycle.

In general, PMI reliably predicts the turning point of growth cycles (that is cyclical changes in the stages of growth), but through it difficult to distinguish a cycle of growth of the overall global economic cycle (on the U.S. after World War II, 82% of all business cycle peaks accompanied by recession, that is, cycles of growth - a rare phenomenon).
The studies proved very strong statistical correlation PMI with such parameters as the economy, industrial production and GDP as a whole. For example, with a high degree of accuracy based on data for the years 1980-1992 has been bred formula linking the value of PMI index of industrial production (IP - industrial production) in two months:
IP = 0.52 x PMI [-2] - 23.4;
from it, in particular, shows that the value of PMI = 45.9 corresponds to a stable industrial production (1 = R 0). A similar formula shows us with the PMI indicator of GDP through the quarter:
GDP = 0.317 x PMI [-1] - 13.9.
It is also noted that the diffusion indices of prices Dl (prices) are faster indicators of turning points in the inflationary cycle.
It should be noted that while reading the business optimism index, you can find negative values, although some indexes higher deliberately limited range [0,100]. This is due to the fact that some statistical organizations are somewhat different definition of the index, namely, they have NPR (net percentage rising), equal to the percentage of respondents “higher percentage of respondents minus lower, which is linked to DI obvious correlation NPR = 2 x (DI — 50).
PMI type indexes are published monthly and in the first working day of the month. The exception - Japanese TANKAN - quarterly. Japanese index also an exception in that it creates a non-professional association of business, as in other countries, a state body - the Central Bank, and was officially declared a guide in decisions concerning monetary policy. Therefore publication of the Japanese index TANKAN always an event in the currency markets.

Real Earnings (Real Average Weekly Earnings)
Average wages for the week.
The index is calculated taking into account inflation (cleared from the effects of inflation). To exclude the impact of inflation calculation is made relative to the reference year for which passed in 1982. There is in the form of absolute value and as indices in relation to the previous period of review. It can serve as an indicator of inflationary development processes associated with the rising cost of labour. Has limited impact on the market. In a major raise expectations of interest rates increases its value could lead to an increase in the dollar. Published usually in the middle of each month at 15:30 (GMT +2) simultaneously with the indicator “CPI” (Consumer Price Index).

Redbook Index
Weekly retail sales “Redbuk.”
It represents the results of the study retail sales volume of major supermarkets. Published weekly on Tuesdays at 17:30 (GMT +2). The first review month (on the first Tuesday of the month) compares the first week of this month with the first week of the previous month, the second review compares the first two weeks of this month with the first two weeks the previous month, etc. Thus, a complete picture of the review is formed only in time of publication last month review (last Tuesday). Virtually no effect on the market. This is because the figures differ significantly spread values (variability) and that the review is limited number of stores.

Retail Price Index (RPI)
The retail price index.
Determine the level of change in the price of “basket” of goods consumption. An indicator of inflation serves retail price index excluding interest payments on loans to purchase real estate (RPI-X). The retail price index, calculated on a uniform formula for comparison with similar indexes in other countries, called harmonized (HICP). If the index exceeds the growth rate projected value, the usual Bank of England raises interest rates. Published monthly. Provides a significant impact on the market.

Retail Sales (UK)
Retail sales for the UK.
He is the indicator of the level of consumption. If the consumption level above the level of production, it usually leads to an increase in inflation. It should be noted that the index of retail sales for the month is a very volatile value. The average for the previous three months, the index value better describes what is happening. Published monthly. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.

Retail Sales (JPN)
Retail sales JPN.
The indicator reflects the changing level of sales. Statistics covers department stores and supermarkets. Shows level of consumer spending and demand. Published monthly. Has little impact on the market.

Retail Sales (US)
Retail sales for US.
The index shows the change in sales in the retail trade.
The volume of retail trade - an indicator of consumer spending, so as an indicator of consumer demand and consumer confidence, it can serve as a guide for currency market turning points in the economic cycle. Especially important are such indicators to track the U.S. economy because consumer demand is the main driving force. If the consumer has more disposable income, the more goods will be made, as well as imported.
This indicator is divided into: “selling cars and selling the rest.” As the number of cars is very volatile value, the most correct information carries with it the portion indicator, which does not include “selling cars.” The increase in retail sales was a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the national currency. Has limited impact on the market (mainly in the medium and long term).
The rate of force characterizes consumer demand. His growth indicates an increase in production of goods, strengthen the economy and currency. Publikustsya: 15:30 (GMT +2), 13 - first day of the month (last month).
RS - First Order ads indicators consumer spending. It is important, because includes (in the form of letters C) in the formula for calculating GDP: GDP = C + I + G + X - M, in which the character C is responsible for about 2 / 3 total GDP. The most important information in the report on retail sales is probably the percentage change in sales of consumer goods, excluding cars. This part of consumer spending is about 40% of the whole. Note 2 lack of data on the RS: First, they reflect only the cost of acquisition of goods, ignoring the acquisition of services; secondly, data on expenditure population exclusively volatility, they are difficult to predict, they are often revised. Data are collected monthly Special Division of the Department of Commerce (Department of Commerce), which is called “the Bureau of Census (US Census Bureau)”, by random survey of retail organizations of all proportions throughout the country.

S & P 500
Index Standard & purz. ”
The index published by an independent company Standard & purz. ” It is compiled in two versions - 500 corporations on shares and 100 shares of corporations. S & P - 500 represents a market value weighted index of 500 shares of corporations that are represented in it in the following proportions: 400 industrial corporations, 20 transportation, 40 financial and 40 utility companies. It includes mainly shares of companies registered on the New York Stock Exchange, but there are also some corporate shares, which traded on the American Stock Exchange and the over-trafficked. The index represents about 80% of the market value of all releases listed on the New York Stock Exchange. This index is more complex compared to the Dow Jones, but it is also more accurate because it represented a larger number of corporate shares and shares of each corporation are weighted by the amount of the value of all shares held in the hands of shareholders. Futures and options on it are sold on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Tankan report
Quarterly Economic Review published by the Department of research and statistics of the Bank of Japan.
The review is based on estimates of more than 8000 companies, firms and economic institutions on the following parameters:
– Business conditions;
– Production and marketing;
– Supply and demand, price level;
– Revenues;
– Direct investment;
– Employment;
– Tax conditions.
Tankan is the most important indicator of the Japanese.
Properties index of business optimism explain why the markets with such a sensitive moment they are waiting for publication and show that the collection and analysis of statistics PMI index can give a lot of useful information for the trader.

Trade Balance
Trade balance.
Expressed in dollars difference between exports and imports of the country, adjusted for seasonality. Data on exports and imports collects monthly Bureau of Statistics (US Census Bureau).
Reducing the U.S. trade deficit is generally good news for holders of dollar: buyers of American exports are forced to buy dollars, while imports sellers - to sell them. The situation with the bond market a little more complicated: reducing the deficit with bondholders usually prefer to see a drop in imports than exports. The reason is their fear of vsegdashnem strong economies and high inflation.
Trade balance (Merchandise Trade Balance, TV) there is a difference between the amount of exports and the amount of imports of goods this country. The trade balance reflects, above all, the competitiveness of products of the country abroad. It is closely related to the level of the national currency, because most positive value of the trade balance, its surplus (exports over imports dominance) means inflows into the country foreign currency, which increases the rate of the national currency. The negative value of the trade balance (trade deficit - dominated by imports over exports) means low competitiveness of this country’s goods in foreign markets, this leads to an increase in external debt and a drop in the national currency.
On the other hand, on their own national currency rate changes affect the outcome of international trade and hence the trade balance. With the low rate of national currency products of the country receive additional advantage over competitors in foreign markets, leading to increased exports. On the contrary, because of the growth rate of the national currency prices of national products in foreign markets will grow, leading to their marginalization of cheaper goods from other countries. Understandably, therefore, that many actions of central banks to reduce rates of national currencies due precisely to ensure national competitive advantage to exporters. In the first half of 1999 it was one of the most important factors weakening the British pound and the euro, as well as the cause of repeated Bank of Japan intervention, to prevent premature strengthening of a strong yen against the dollar.
Data on the trade balance is published monthly, usually at 3 - second week of the month 15:30 (GMT +2). The presentation of data - with seasonal alignment, both in nominal, as well as in fixed prices. Results of trade grouped by six major product categories (food, raw materials and industrial stocks, consumer goods, automobiles, capital goods, other goods) and on trade with individual countries. Usually foreign exchange market looks at the balance of trade in general, rather than on separate bilateral balance of trade with various countries. There are exceptions: the U.S. trade balance with Japan has long been the subject of separate consideration because of the traditionally large quantities of its deficit and caused him political problems, trade sanctions, etc.
An example of the relationship of exchange rates and trade balance of the guide are coordinated five major industrialized nations - the historic agreement Plaza Accord, New York, September 1985. At that time the American dollar was at the post-war record high level against the European currencies and Japanese yen. American exporters are at a disadvantage because of the conditions of high prices for their products in international markets. As a way to equalize the trade imbalance picked devalue the dollar, which was implemented by corresponding changes in interest rates. However, the effect of significantly reducing the dollar (against the yen and the deutsche mark while the dollar slipped twice) for the balance of trade has been minimal: a few leveled to 1990 - moo year, the trade balance fell to previous levels in 1993, as imports grew up in the U.S. whereas superior pace.
In fact, despite the obvious importance of trade data, their interpretation in terms of exchange rates is not an easy task. The volume of exports and imports with regard to their economic importance are not considered equal. Exports have more direct impact on economic growth of the country, so attached to the financial markets to export more important. On the other hand, import growth may reflect strong consumer demand inside the country, and may make sense, such as increasing stocks of raw materials, and in these cases, the economic consequences will be different.
Contradictory reactions in currency markets to trade data primarily related to the market whether by itself currency exchange rate for special attention managers of monetary policy or not. If the dollar is the focus of financial authorities, while increasing the deficit and falling export markets decide that the dollar should fall to alleviate the problems of exporters. Inflationary the expected consequences of such a motion would be negative course for participants in the securities markets with fixed income (government bonds). If begin redeployment of investment portfolios, it would affect the exchange rate. But if the dollar and inflation is not now a priority issue, it is itself a fact that exports fell, could push down many shares (shares of export corporations), and the price of bonds to raise. Thus, the same economic data may result directly opposite effects on the currency market.
Unlike other series of economic statistics, data on the trade balance do not have expressed correlation with the business cycle stages, because the internal economic dynamics countries imposed economic cycles in other countries, which have their own particular phase and amplitude changes. In analysing the trade data must be taken into account also clearly expressed their seasonal dependence, well illustrated by the above schedules.

Unemployment rate
The rate of unemployment.
Each month a special department of the Department of Employment (Department of Labor), called “Accounting Office for Employment (Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS)” gathers information and creates a so-called Household survey - the result of the survey population. Is about 60 000 families. Only persons without work and actively searching for her - that is, registered unemployed. The resulting number is divided into the total number of those surveyed, multiplied by 100, and called the unemployment rate.
The report on employment is perhaps the most powerful of all the “engine of the market.” There are two main reasons. First, data on employment is very difficult to forecast, so often declared values differed from the expected and cause immediate correction. Secondly, these data are very well reflect the actual state of the economy. Despite the fact that they often make investors refer to them as an immediate guide to action.
Increased unemployment (falling employment), usually accompanied by the collapse of the national currency. However, for each country to exist today officially effective dissemination of data on unemployment. Ie on permissible and even desirable for the prosperity of the economy size of unemployment. Today, these sizes range from 3 to 7 per cent of the total working population depending on the country;
High unemployment - is bad. It promotes social tensions, reduce the number of middle-class people ( “democracy building”) and lower net mass of real incomes.
Low unemployment - is bad because workers lost the incentive to work and a good beginning to suffer the interests of employers.
The optimum value of unemployment lies at the crossroads of two major interest groups - employers and employees. Inevitable compromise between them, otherwise affected the interests of one group may lead to a revolutionary solution of the issue.

Unit Labour Cost
Unit cost of output.
The index characterizes the costs associated with the production unit. It is an important indicator of the effectiveness of the country’s economic development. Provides a significant impact on the market. Он служит хорошим индикатором развития инфляционных процессов, связанных с ростом заработной платы. Обычно анализ этого индекса проводят в контексте с цифрами, отражающими величину показателя “Productivity” (Производительность труда). Рост стоимости единицы выпущенной продукции наряду с ростом производительности труда может привести к необходимости повышения основных процентных ставок, что является положительным фактором для роста курса доллара. Его значение публикуется каждый квартал, до 10-го числа месяца публикации в 15:30 (GMT+2), одновременно с показателем “Productivity”.

Unit Wage Costs
The cost of labour.
If the growth rate of labour costs exceed the rate of productivity growth, it raises inflationary pressures on the economy. Published monthly. Has limited impact on the market.

Wholesale Inventories
Commodity stocks in warehouses wholesale trade.
The index characterizes the relationship between wholesalers and retailers. Has limited impact on the market, but gives an idea of the trends in these sectors of the economy, which could projected on the economy as a whole. “Zatovarivanie” warehouses may indicate the existence of stagnant phenomena in the economy. A sustained trend in its dynamics has a profound influence on the market. Growth in value index has a negative impact on the dollar. Its value is published about 10 - the first of each month at 17:00 (GMT +2).

Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
The index of wholesale prices.
Reflects change in the level of prices of large quantities of goods. Calculated as the average of three components: domestic wholesale prices, wholesale prices on the export and wholesale prices for imports. WPI considered the best indicator of inflation than the CPI, because it directly reflects the state of the business sector. The indicator was adopted by the market into account.